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IDP by the Numbers - Week 1

Sep 04 2008, 06:00 PM

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The Seattle Seahawks get defensive.

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Contributed by Chris LaBarge, IDP Writer


With the popularity of IDP leagues on the rise, it’s becoming more difficult to dominate them from year to year. People are doing more research before their drafts and paying more attention to depth charts than ever before. Once you have your roster in place, making sure you’re putting your highest scoring players in your lineup is where you can separate yourself. But what makes a good match up or a bad match up for the IDP players on your team? To me, I want the players that are playing against teams that allow the most tackles to my players’ positions. But how in the heck do I know that? That’s where this article should come in handy.


Now the first thing I’ll tell you is that this article should only be used as a piece of a tie-breaker system. If you’re having a tough time deciding between two or three players, knowing the tendencies of their opponents can be a valuable piece of information. Now, regardless of the match ups, if DeMeco Ryans is a (-1.50) and Rashad Jeanty is a (+1.50), you should still start Ryans. But if you’re trying to decide between Antonio Pierce and Karlos Dansby, a look at their match ups may push one of them into your lineup.

So, how do I come up with each position’s rating? As a numbers guy, my first step is to determine league-wide weekly averages by position. This gives us our baseline number to use for each match-up comparison. Since we don’t have any 2008 data to work with, here are the positional averages for 2007:

 
DE
DT
NT
MLB
WLB
SLB
ILB
OLB
SS
FS
CB
TOTAL
4.00
3.47
3.61
7.46
6.34
4.77
7.06
4.27
5.99
4.85
5.69
55.88
 
 The second step is to take the average number of tackles a team gives up to each position and compare it to the corresponding league average. For the match ups below, the number you see behind each position is the difference between the team’s tackles allowed average and the league average (negative numbers in parentheses). If a team is allowing 4.5 tackles to 4-3 defensive ends, they will show up as a +0.50 in the comparisons (team average of 4.5 minus the league average of 4.00).

Confused yet? It gets better. Once you learn how to read and apply the information contained here, I think you’ll like the results. No more looking for the “running” teams. HOT Matchup COLD Matchup
 

Washington vs. New York Giants (Thursday)

 
WASHINGTON
NEW YORK GIANTS
DE
5.09
1.09
DE
3.84
(0.16)
DT
4.27
0.80
DT
3.59
0.12
MLB
7.91
0.45
MLB
9.09
1.63
WLB
7.55
1.21
WLB
5.82
(0.52)
SLB
4.55
(0.22)
SLB
3.64
(1.13)
SS
6.31
0.32
SS
7.19
1.20
FS
4.69
(0.16)
FS
5.56
0.71
CB
5.38
(0.32)
CB
5.19
(0.50)
TOTAL
62.50
6.62
TOTAL
57.13
1.24
 
 
Game notes:
  • Osi Umenyiora’s injury will send shockwaves through the Giants’ lineup. Expect some flux at key positions into the season. The addition of Jerome McDougal should help.
  • Rocky McIntosh looks to be healthy enough to start the season for Washington. 
WSH Upgrades: Fletcher-Baker (MLB), Doughty (SS), Landry (FS)
WSH Downgrades: McIntosh (WLB), Washington (SLB), Springs/Smoot (CB)
NYG Upgrades: Tuck/Kiwanuka (DE), Robbins/Cofield (DT), Wilkinson (WLB)
NYG Downgrades: none

 
Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
CINCINNATI
BALTIMORE
DE
4.00
0.00
DE
4.25
0.25
DT
3.28
(0.19)
DT
3.86
0.39
MLB
6.50
(0.96)
MLB
6.43
(1.03)
WLB
7.88
1.54
WLB
6.86
0.52
SLB
5.13
0.36
SLB
6.14
1.37
SS
6.38
0.39
SS
7.19
1.20
FS
5.44
0.59
FS
5.19
0.34
CB
6.13
0.44
CB
6.00
0.31
TOTAL
54.56
(1.32)
TOTAL
61.31
5.43
 
Game notes:
  • Ed Reed’s shoulder injury could keep him out the first few weeks of the season, or more. Jim Leonhard will fill in at FS.
  • Keith Rivers is good. Very good. If you haven’t seen him yet, do yourself a favor and watch.
  • Monitor Baltimore’s use of Bart Scott. Expect less pass coverage responsibilities from him this season. 
CIN Upgrades: Rivers (WLB), Jeanty (SLB), Dex.Jackson (SS)
CIN Downgrades: Dh.Jones (MLB)
BAL Upgrades: Scott (WLB), Leonhard (FS)
BAL Downgrades: R. Lewis (MLB)

 
Detroit vs. Atlanta      
DETROIT
ATLANTA
DE
3.59
(0.41)
DE
3.38
(0.63)
DT
3.31
(0.16)
DT
3.36
(0.11)
MLB
6.62
(0.84)
MLB
6.71
(0.75)
WLB
4.92
(1.42)
WLB
4.86
(1.48)
SLB
2.69
(2.08)
SLB
4.29
(0.48)
SS
5.88
(0.12)
SS
5.69
(0.30)
FS
3.63
(1.23)
FS
4.38
(0.48)
CB
6.56
0.87
CB
5.31
(0.38)
TOTAL
49.88
(6.01)
TOTAL
50.31
(5.57)
 
Game notes:
  • Those that expected rookie Jordan Dizon to start at MLB right away have got to be disappointed. He currently sits 3rd on the depth chart there.
  • Fellow rookie Curtis Lofton started the Falcons’ 3rd preseason game and has the inside track to open Week 1 in the middle of Atlanta’s defense. 
DET Upgrades: none
DET Downgrades: White/DeVries (DE), Lenon (MLB), Sims (WLB)
ATL Upgrades: Grimes/Houston (CB)
ATL Downgrades: Lofton (MLB), Brooking (WLB), Boley (SLB), E. Coleman (FS)

 
Houston vs. Pittsburgh
HOUSTON
PITTSBURGH
 
 
DE
5.13
1.13
DE
3.69
(0.31)
DT
4.60
1.13
NT
4.00
0.39
MLB
8.10
0.64
ILB
7.75
0.69
WLB
6.40
0.06
OLB
4.25
(0.02)
SLB
5.89
1.12
SS
6.19
0.20
SS
6.94
0.95
FS
3.94
(0.91)